NORTHCOAST POWER SWEEP = 3-5
MEINEKE CAR CARE BOWL
This is just the 2nd meeting between NC & WV. Their only other meeting came in the ‘97 Gator Bowl, a 20-13 UNC victory (-6’). NC is bowl elig for the 1st time S/’04 when they played in the Continental Tire Bowl
(now Meineke Car Care) & WV appeared in the inaugural gm in ‘02 (both lost). The Heels finished the reg ssn with 8 wins which is the most S/’97 (10). NC is 12-13 SU all-time in bowls & 5-1 SU & 4-1-1 ATS L/6. HC
Davis is 4-0 SU & ATS in bowls. Stewart in his 1st bowl as interim HC defeated OK LY 48-28 (+7). WV is off a disappointing ssn after posting three consec 11 win ssns & 5 consec Jan 1st bowls. They lost 3 gms by a
combined 10 pts and dropped from the AP poll for the 1st time since ‘05. WV OC Mullen is familiar with NC having coached at WF for 7 yrs. NC plays all of their HG’s on grass while WV is 7-4 SU & 5-6 ATS L3Y on
grass. NC has 11 Sr’s (T-3rd fewest in NCAA) incl 5 starters among 13 total upperclassmen. WV has 8 Sr starters among 12 upperclassmen. NC played 9 bowl teams & went 6-3 SU & 5-4 ATS, outscoring them 28-20
but was outgained 364-302. WV has played 7 bowl tms outscoring them 19-18 but was outgained 317-303. These 2 faced 2 common opp’s TY each defeating both Rutgers & Conn, NC by 29 ppg & WV by 15 ppg.
This bowl has avg’d 60,000 fans with only 2 sellouts in 6Y. NC will have the crowd edge but WV fans have travelled well in the past & will make the trip. WV is 2-3 SU & ATS on the road TY & NC is 3-2 SU & ATS.
WV has our #35 off avg 24 ppg & 353 ypg. After huge bowl win as interim coach Stewart brought in OC Mullen to “tweak” the prolific WV run off into a balanced attack. WV opened by throwing 5 TD’s vs Villanova & each week looked like a different offense. The off went from avg 40 ppg & 297 (6.2) ypg rush in ‘07, to avg 24 ppg & 217 (5.5) ypg rush. QB White broke Mizzou QB Brad Smith’s record & became the all-time leader in rushing by a QB & the 1st player BE to reach 10,000 career yds. Devine stepped into big shoes replacing NFL’er Slaton & rushed for 102 ypg (6.4). The WR corps was led by playmaker Sanders. The OL has 133 car sts & features 3 Sr’s that only all’d 14 sks led by All-BE selections Stanchek & Dent who missed L/4 to inj (CS). While the offense searched for its identity, the D kept WV in games. DC Casteel earned his paycheck with just 4 starters ret’g & a huge loss in MLB Williams who couldn’t recover from surg to both shoulders. WV has our #25 def allowing 16 ppg & 326 ypg. The DL allowed 135 rush ypg (3.6) & has 12 of the tm’s 24 sks. The LB’s are led by All-BE LB Ivy & Thomas who combined for 15 tfl. The Mountaineers have our #24
pass D, all’g 191 ypg (56%) with an 8-16 ratio. They are led by All BE CB Lankster (PS#1JC!!) & former WR turned CB Hogan who took over & started L/9 and they combined for 6 int. WV has our #37 ST’s ranking led
by All-BE P/K McAffee who hit 84% of his FG’s & avg 44.7 on punts. WV ranks #117 in KR def all’g 27.7. NC has trailed in 6 of their 8 wins TY incl 3x’s rallying back from deficits of at least 10 pts. In 3 of NC’s 4
losses they gave up late scores incl leading VT 17-3 before losing QB TJ Yates (fractured ank) & surrendering 17 pts. NC has dealt with countless injs TY, some to more high-profile players like LB Paschal (spinal inj), Yates & WR Tate (torn ACL) but the tm’s “resilience, diligence & determination” are what has allowed them to persevere. QB Yates in just his 2nd gm back from inj (missed 6) threw for 190 yds & 3 TD in the
ssn finale. RB Draughn emerged as the starting TB after moving from S & had 110 yd in the ssn finale. WR Nicks became the first 1,000 yd rec in UNC history. WR Foster had knee surg but is expected to be ready
here. NC’s OL avg 6’5” 307 allowing 3.6 ypc rush but has all’d 27 sks (9.2%). The unit is led by 2nd Tm ACC RT Reynolds & HM ACC RG Darity. The Heels have our #64 off & #44 def. The DL avg 6’4” 293 allowing 3.8
ypc rush & the DL has 11 of the 18 sks (61%). DE’s Wilson & true Fr Quinn (PS#18DL), who is 1 yr removed from a brain tumor, will be counted on to contain QB White. NC has one of the best LB groups in the ACC but Paschal suffered a career ending spinal inj vs NCSt. Sturdivant is #1 tklr & Carter leads the nation with 5 blk’d K (4 P, 1 FG). NC ranks 8th in the NCAA with 19 int & set a single ssn NC rec with 4 IR TD’s. NC has
int’d at least 1 pass in 9 of 12 gms TY incl multiple int’s in 6. NC is #47 in our pass D rankings allowing 217 ypg pass (60%). The secondary is led by S Goddard who is T-#1 in the NCAA w/7 int (1 IR TD) & CB Burney.
NC has our #31 sp tms. NC avgs 10.9 on PR’s & 21.6 on KR’s. They allowed 9.2 on PR’s & 18.2 on KR’s. NC was picked to be one of our most improved tms TY & fought through 2 major injs to QB Yates & WR/sp tmr Tate to get to 8 wins. WV had BCS aspirations after LY’s Fiesta Bowl win & new HC Stewart experimented the entire season with more of a passing offense. This backfired & WV finished with just 8 wins including dropping gms as a favorite vs EC, Colo, Cincy & Pitt. This is a bowl that could be decided by the 2 coaches & that advantage clearly goes to the Tar Heels under Butch Davis.
FORECAST: N CAROLINA BY 8
RATING: 1* N CAROLINA
CHAMPS SPORTS BOWL
This is the 1st meeting between the schools. FSU fans are disappointed to be here as the Gator Bowl snubbed an FSU program that has aggressively sought to play regular season games in Jacksonville by selecting 7-5 Clemson over 8-4 FSU even though the Noles defeated the Tigers 41-27. FSU extended its bowl streak to 27 straight, a mark that leads the nation. This is both teams’ 1st appearance in this bowl although Wisconsin has played in the other Orlando bowl (Capital One) in ‘06 & ‘07 pulling upsets of SEC teams both years. This is the 5th year in a row fatigue’ among their normally rabid fan base. The Noles hold an 8-2-1 record all-time (3-1-1 in bowls) vs current Big Ten opps. S/’95 UW is 4-0 SU/2-2 ATS vs ACC tms. FSU is 20-10-1 SU and 18-10-1 ATS in bowls under Bowden while Bielema is 1-1 SU & ATS. UW is 2-1 ATS on grass TY and 3-2 ATS on the road. FSU played of all its games on grass TY. The Noles went 4-3 ATS as a fav including their 39-21 win over Colorado in Jacksonville as our Sept 5H GOM Winner. Under Bielema, UW is 2-6 ATS as an AD including bowls. FSU has 6 senior starter and 16 upperclassmen while the Badgers have 10 seniors among 16 upperclassmen. At 3-0, #9 UW had BCS dreams leading Mich 19-0 at the half in Ann Arbor. They let the Wolves off the
hook however and the next week Ohio St scored the game-winning TD with 1:08 left. With nothing left in the tank the Badgers collapsed 48-7 to Penn St in its worst loss S/’89 and HC Bielema decided a QB change was
in order. Evridge was benched and Sherer guided the team to a 4-2 record down the stretch while minimizing mistakes (4 int in 6 gms). UW’s run game continued to be their strength as Hill and VHT rFr Clay were the
league’s top duo. The offense relies on multiple TE sets and ‘07 Mackey finalist Beckum battled an injury early on before his season ended with a broken leg after just 6 games.The “other” TE Graham was 1st Tm Big Ten
as the top WR Gilreath had just 30 rec. The OL is massive (6-6 319 avg) and rebounded from midseason injury problems (LT Carimi and RG Urbik missed 3 gms) for a 4.8 ypc while allowing 26 sks (8.2%). UW’s senior-laden (6 starters) D blew 3 games (Mich, OSU & Mich St) in the 2H due to untimely mental mistakes. Wisky has our #32 off and #39 def. The DL is led by DT Newkirk who had a tm leading 8 tfl. The LB’s are the
tm’s top 3 tacklers with Sr’s Casillas and Levy earning HM Big Ten honors. The secondary is spearheaded by 1st Tm Big Ten CB Langford and is #27 in our pass eff defense rankings. Bielema is the ST’s coach and
acknowledged that some changes need to be made in that area next year as the Badgers finished just #85. The ‘08 season marks the 32nd consec yr the Seminoles have posted a winning rec’d under Bowden.
FSU started the season with several players susp for the 1st 3 gms but was actually 6-1 heading into Nov but lost 3 of their L/5. FSU has had some inconsistency with its pro-set offense. QB Ponder struggled vs
Florida in the reg ssn finale and was replaced by Weatherford. HM ACC RB Smith is #2 in the ACC in scoring and is playing his final game at FSU with the bowl close to his hometown (Pahokee, 140 miles). With the QB position inconsistent TY, the WR’s did not have the season as expected. The Seminoles’ OL, which is one of the youngest in the nation in 2008, avg 6’4” 281 and avg 4.9 ypc rush and 24 sks (6.9%). FSU has our #28 offense and #24 defense. The defense is coming off its worst performance of the yr in the reg season finale. FSU could not stop QB Tim Tebow (who could?) or the Gators’ receivers and was pushed around the field. The smallish D-line avg 6’2” 263 and is all’g 3.7 ypc rush and 27.5 of the 36 sacks are by DL’s. The leader of this unit is 1st Tm ACC & Hendrick Finalist Brown (runner-up ACC Def POY) who ranks #3 in the NCAA in sks & tfl. The LB’s are the #1, #3 & #4 tklr’s led by Nicholson who is #30 in the NCAA in tfl. 2nd Tm ACC S Rolle (#2 tklr) is the 1st ACC player in 47 yrs to be a recipient of the Rhodes Scholarship. There is speculation DC Andrews may be thinking of retirement and has come under fire after bad
performances against Florida, BC and GT. FSU has our #5 sp tms. 1st Tm ACC & Groza winner K Gano is #1 in the NCAA in FG & #1 in the ACC in scoring (#5 NCAA). KR Garvin is #1 NCAA in KR avg TY and has 69 career KR’s for 1,650 total yards, just 53 yards shy of topping the all-time record at FSU. Wisconsin’s season did not go as expected as they totaled 7 wins none of which were vs BCS teams with more than 7 wins. FSU survived their early season susp’s by playing a pair of IAA teams and the young offense improved throughout the season and avg’d 32 ppg prior to the Florida loss. FSU is loaded with NFL caliber players and their main goal will be to shut down the one dimensional Wisky run game. Versus the top 3 quality D’s they faced this year the Badgers scored just 40 ttl pts against Ohio St, Penn St & Iowa. As you can see by the checklist FSU dominates
almost every category and the speedy D will disrupt inexperienced QB Sherer into making mistakes.
FORECAST: FLORIDA ST BY 17
RATING: 4* FLORIDA ST
EMERALD BOWL
First Emerald Bowl trip for both prog’s & the 4th all-time meeting (First S/’90, UM leads series 2-1). Cal is bowl-eligible for a schl rec’d 7th consec ssn & will attend a schl rec’d 6th str bowl gm here as HC Tedford is
4-1 SU/3-2 ATS in postseason appearances. UM is 15-8 in bowls S/‘81 and 8-2 recently incl their non-cover win vs Nevada 21-20 in the MPC Computer Bowl however this marks HC Shannon’s 1st appearance as
HC (2nd yr with Canes). Miami is 13-5 all-time vs tms from the state of CA and is 4-3 all-time playing inside the Golden State. The last time UM played inside CA was ‘01 when they won the National Championship
in the Rose Bowl. While these schools didn’t play a similar opponent in ‘08, Cal went 3-4 SU (4-3 ATS) vs bowl teams being outgained by a 356-349 clip while Miami went just 2-5 SU (1-6 ATS) & was outgained by a 345-290 mark. Cal is just across the bridge from AT&T Park and will obviously have the fan edge. The Golden Bears have 7 Sr starters among 15 upperclassmen & the Hurricanes have 6 starters in their final year (23 Sr’s on the UM roster) with 12 upperclassmen total. UM is 10-7 as an AD & 6-3 at a neutral site. The Bears off ranks #21 despite HC Tedford going back & fourth with his starting QB’s. It appears that Riley has taken over for the time being with LY’s starter Longshore providing ample bkup capability
here. RB Jahvid Best had a game breaking ssn for the Bears finishing #1 in the conf in rushing after his 311 rush yd (16.4) performance vs UW while also finishing 1st overall all in all-purp yds. Bkup RB Vereen, who could start for a handful of P10 schools, filled in valiantly for Best who missed time with elbow & ankle inj’s. With the departure of arguably the best WR corps that Cal ever had foll LY’s bowl, this position looked to be the biggest ?? for the upcoming ssn. TE Morrah & 6th yr Sr WR Young carried
the team early on while JC trans & late signee Tucker came on during the 2H of the ssn to contribute. The OL avg 6’4” 307 & is led by AA C Mack who helped Cal rush for 184 ypg (5.4) while giving up 25 sks (6.6%). Cal DC Gregory took adv of the abundance of talent at the LB position by switching from a 4-3 to 3-4 TY and the Bears’ D finished #8. The DL avg 6’3” 290 & is led by DE Alualu who accompanied by the rest of the D, all’d 123 ypg rush (3.2) on the year. The LB corps (13.5 of 33 def sks, 41%) is led by the Sr threesome of Follett, Felder & Williams. Cal’s secondary had an amazing ssn finishing with our #2 pass eff def ranking all’g just 193 ypg (51%) with a 9-23 ratio (#3 in NCAA in int). Cal posted a #50 ST’s ranking led by the outstanding foot of 1st yr P Anger. Miami has a very young tm with 20 frosh or soph listed on 2 deep incl the K’s & P’s. The Canes lead
the nation with 18 diff players scoring a TD TY. Miami has kept its opponents under 20 pts in four of its L/7 games. During the tm’s winning streak, the Hurricanes have outscored opponents by a 25-17 avg.
The Canes have only had 2 players (C Shannon & LB Cook) start all 12 gms. UM runs a 2 QB system, rFR Robert Marve has been name ACC Rookie POW 2x’s and true Fr Jacory Harris 3x’s TY. RB Javarris James has been hampered TY with inj, missing 4 gms and RB Graig Cooper took over the top spot. WR Aldarius Johnson was susp for the ssn finale. The true Fr is Miami’s leading receiver and he will be avail here. WR & PR/KR Travis Benjamin could miss the bowl because of a high ankle sprain. The
Canes OL avg 6’5” 311 with 2 Sr starters and is anchored by LT Jason Fox (6’7” 307, PS#22). Miami is avg 4.0 ypc and has all’d 25 sks (6.8%). UM has our #60 offense and #49 defense. The DL avg 6’2” 278 lbs and is all’g 3.8 ypc rush. The DL has 20.5 of UM’s 31 sacks. UM did lose their top DL mid-ssn (Eric Moncur). True Fr LB Sean Spence was name Def Rookie POY finishing 3rd on the tm in tfl & led LB w/tfl. UM’s pass D is all’g 169 ypg (51%) but only has 4 int (#118 NCAA). Miami has our #46 sp tms. 2nd Tm ACC K & P Matt Bosher has scored more pts thru 12 games (89) than both K’s LY (67). UM is avg 19.4 ypr KR and 11.5 PR and all’g 17.3 KR and 9.2 PR. OC Patrick Nix was contacted by Auburn for the HC job. Miami limps into this bowl having lost 2 straight and failing to cover the L/3. They’ve won and covered just 1 gm vs a winning team and that was a defensive battle vs Wake Forest. California may have been known for a productive offense but their defense got them to 8 wins as they’ve held 5 of the L/6 opps to under 17 pts while covering 5 of the L/6. The Bears are much more balanced behind the rush attack of RB Best and look for them to bring the pressure vs a pair of young UM QB’s.
FORECAST: MIAMI, FL/CAL UNDER 50’
RATING: 2*MIAMI, FL/CAL UNDER 50’
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